by It will be winner takes all when Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka meet next Saturday in the Australian Open Final. It will be the first hardcourt Grand Slam final for both players, as each looks to get their hands on the Daphne Akhurst Memorial cup.
The Road to the Final
Rybakina has only dropped 1 set on her road to the final, to D. Collins (last year’s runner-up) in the 3rd Round, whilst Sabalenka has not dropped a set all tournament. Elena Rybakina has arguably had the tougher road to the final having notably beaten last year’s finalist D. Collins, no. 1 seed and favourite Iga Swiatek in the fourth round and then playing Ostapenko (17) and Azarenka (24) in the final to stages. Three of those four players have at least one grand slam to their name. However, on her side of the draw Sabalenka has defeated B. Bencic (12) and E. Mertens (26) and defeated tricky opponent Magda Linette who has had a fantastic tournament.
Head-to-Head
Aryna Sabalenka has won all 3 of the competitive matches that the two have played against each other, two of which were on hardcourt. However, all three games went to a 3-set showdown, and the last match was in 2021, prior to Rybakina’s Wimbledon Win.
Although Sabalenka has won more major trophies (11 to Rybakina’s 4), perhaps it is the Grand Slams that count in this match. Rybakina comes into the match with the Wimbledon title in hand, and she has been very outspoken in her press conference about how she is using that experience in this tournament. On the other hand, Sabalenka has won the double’s Grand Slam twice on hardcourt, but this will be her first Single’s Grand Slam Final and she will look to make it stick.
Strengths and Possible Tactics
Both players have a strong serve and are hard hitters of the ball. In their previous matches, both have won at least 70% of their first serves. However, Sabalenka edged Rybakina in 2nd serves and return points, suggesting that this would be one critical point that both players will be considering.
Sabalenka tends to play with a bit more spin and balls tend to fly a bit higher. Considering Elena’s height, Aryna would perhaps target the balls deeper to the baseline as anything slightly short would be at perfect height for Rybakina to power through.
On the other hand, Sabalenka is perhaps the better net player of the two and might look to exploit this. However, Rybakina has recently looked to improve this aspect of her game and likes to change the pace of the ball a bit more than Sabalenka. The match will be played at night, meaning that the ball will not fly off as much and so control of the ball may be more important.
The Mental Game
The game will be a test of the mental capacity of both players under the pressure. Rybakina has become very well-known for her calm demeanor whilst Sabalenka is the more expressive of the two. Though Aryna has undoubtedly shown a happier side, especially in the press conference after winning the semi-final, it generally seems that during matches Sabalenka finds strength from an aggressive almost fighting stance on the court. On the other hand, during games Rybakina seems to boost her confidence quietly, often with a slightly raised fist and a half-smile when she wins points.
Sabalenka has often spoken out about how nerves and anxiety have sometimes caused her downfall, especially in the semi-finals of other Grand Slams, and so will look to prove that she has turned the page on this. On the other hand, Rybakina had ice veins in her Wimbledon final as she went down a set against no. 2 seed Ons Jabeur and came back to win both sets. She also seemed to be well in control of her emotions earlier in the tournament when she beat Iga Swiatek, arguably by handling the critical moments of the match more coolly than the number one seed. However, coming into this final as the only Grand Slam champion between the two, she is no longer considered the underdog and perhaps will feel that pressure too.
Final Thoughts
The match is evenly balanced and expected to be a thrilling one. The trophy might just go to the one who can be the tougher in the critical moments of the match.
The final will be played on Saturday 28th January at the Rod Laver arena.
