by Aryna Sabalenka will take on Elena Rybakina in the Indian Wells final later today. It will be the second final between the two this year and following the epic show put on by them in the Australian Open final, anticipation is high. Elena Rybakina defeated world number one and defending champion Iga Swiatek to progress to the final, whilst Aryna Sabalenka defeated last year’s runner-up Maria Sakkari.
Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina have now shown good signs of consistency at the top following winning a Grand Slam. Could we be witnessing the start of a big three in women’s tennis?
The Recent Drought In Rivalries
The domination of Margaret Court, Billie Jean King, Chris Evert, Steffi Graff and Martina Navratilova in years past is well known. There were great rivalries, notably between Steffi Graf and Monica Seles, whilst Martina Navratilova and Chris Evert also put on fantastic shows, winning a long list of slams along the way.
The 2000s were marked by Serena Williams’ dominance, winning 23 grand slams and very few truly challenged her. Amongst her notable rivals is her sister Venus, but still, she only defeated Serena twice out of nine major finals. Much was also made of the rivalry between Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams, but again Sharapova only won two out of their twenty encounters, even if the matches provided spectacular drama.
Serena’s dominance in that era continues to attest to how much a great rivalry has been lacking in the game. More recently, former number one Ashleigh Barty announced early retirement after falling out of love with the competitive side of the game just as she began to dominate.
Iga Swiatek rose in 2019 when she took her maiden slam at the Roland Garros, but truly established herself as a force in 2022, catapulting herself into world number one and racking up several trophies along the way. This set a hope for a dominant figure in women’s tennis for the next era, but fans have been denied of good rivalries since the 2000s and possibly longer than that.
The Story So Far
This is where Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina enter the fold. Since Barty’s retirement, these three players have taken the available four major titles. Swiatek has taken two, while Sabalenka and Rybakina have one apiece. Iga Swiatek is the youngest of the three at 21, but currently holds the most slams.
Aryna Sabalenka held the number two spot during Ashleigh Barty’s reign, but dropped off after Covid-19, and is finally making her mark in 2023. Meanwhile, Elena Rybakina was also on the rise before Covid struck but really rose in 2022, winning her maiden slam and following it up with another grand slam final, not to mention next Sunday’s WTA 1000 Indian Wells final.
Thus, Swiatek, Sabalenka, and Rybakina took the last 4 grand slams, while also getting to the latter stages of WTA tournaments. They are also of similar ages suggesting they will be battling out for a few good years to come. For great rivalries to truly take shape there needs to be consistency in getting to the latter stages, but also the ability to beat the other top players. So the question begs: Can they keep up the level and battle each other for consecutive titles for years on end?
Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka
Iga leads the wins 4-2. All encounters between the two happened in 2021 and 2022. Last year the two met four times at high-stakes matches: 3 semi-finals (including US Open semi-final which Iga went on to win), a final in Stuttgart, and a quarter-final in Doha (which Iga went on to win). Their only match in 2021 was a Round 1 match.
Sabalenka won her two matches in 3 sets, whilst Iga won three of four in straight sets. Currently, the two have an equal number of WTA singles titles but Sabalenka has the chance to edge one over Iga if she takes Indian Wells. On the other hand, Swiatek leads in Grand Slams, having three to her name to Sabalenka’s one title.
Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina
Rybakina has overtaken Swiatek in the head-to-head this year, taking 2 wins, whilst Swiatek won their only encounter in 2021. Elena racked up both wins in 2023, the latest coming during Saturday’s semi-final at Indian Wells, setting up another final against Sabalenka. Her other win came earlier this year, at the round of sixteen of the Australian Open (finishing as runner-up to Sabalenka). Swiatek’s victory came in 2021 in Ostrava’s quarter-final.
It is evident that while Iga dominated most tournaments in 2022, Elena also made strides in landing the first Grand Slam (Wimbledon), a feat that she is continuing to improve on. She has now beaten Swiatek twice in straight sets in 2023. It seems that Rybakina’s improvement is troubling the world number one, but Swiatek will certainly be scheming a plan with her team to beat the Khazakstani in their next match-up.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina
The battle of the heavy hitters is currently dominated by Aryna Sabalenka, 4-0. The games between them have spanned from 2019 to 2023 and have all gone to three sets, a testament to their equality in play.
Though considered to be heavy hitters, they both have the ability to mix it up a bit more making for interesting matchups. Sabalenka is an accomplished doubles player, and Rybakina has been outspoken about her determination to improve this element of her game. The AO Final in 2023 was a tribute to this and showed how close the two are.
Now that both have got their maiden slam out of the way, it seems that they are handling the pressure that comes with it well. Sabalenka has turned the page in 2023 and has only lost one match to Barbora Krejcikova. On the other hand, Rybakina is on the rise in the rankings, getting consistent results and improving her game along the way. It will be interesting to see if Elena can finally break Aryna’s streak in the final on Sunday.
Consistency – is the trend real or is it too early to tell?
There is no doubt that Iga Swiatek’s built a fear factor after winning two of four grand slams and racking up wins in six other tournaments in 2022. This year she shined again at the Doha event. She delivered bagels in all matches along the way and defended her title with aplomb, beating Jessica Pegula 6-3, 6-0, in the final.
On the other hand, she lost the Dubai final to Barbora Krejcikova and bowed out of the United Cup in the semi-final against eventual winner Jessica Pegula. Elena Rybakina delivered another two blows to the world no. 1 in the Australian Open R16 and the Indian Wells semi-final.
Meanwhile, Elena Rybakina started 2022 strong, reaching the Final in Adelaide against Ashleigh Barty, albeit losing in straight sets against the then-number one. It bode for good things to come, and in July captured her maiden major title after beating Ons Jabeur in three sets at Wimbledon.
She sloped off following the win but returned with aplomb in 2023, reaching the Australian Open final, which she lost to Aryna Sabalenka. She has now set up another final against the world number two player, in which she is striving for her maiden WTA 1000 title. In both these events, Rybakina defeated Iga Swiatek on her way to the final.
Aryna Sabalenka has had the best start to this season, winning both in Adelaide and the Australian Open, after having had many semi-final heartaches in the past. Her only loss this year came against Barbora Krejcikova, at the Dubai WTA 1000. The favourable head-to-head ratio against Elena Rybakina means that she will fancy the Indian Wells final, but Rybakina is on the rise and Sabalenka will be aware of this.
Strengths & Points For Improvement
Swiatek made great strides to improve on the hardcourt and this is the surface that all three players will be closest on. It will be interesting to see whether we will see a match-up between any of these three in the US Open.
Looking towards the other major trophies, Iga will fancy the French Open against both players, her top-spin and movement are killers on the clay court. She has won the tournament twice already and will be the favourite going into it.
The heavy hitters will fancy Wimbledon more. Rybakina has already proven herself on the grass court, but Aryna Sabalenka missed out last year due to the ban on Russian and Belarussian players. She will hope to make her mark this year. All things said, if the players continue to improve on all surfaces, it only bodes for more exciting times ahead.
Swiatek has won career titles on two of the three surfaces. The world number one has one leg up on the career slam but the Australian Open still eludes her and is yet unsuccessful on the grass court. On the other hand, Sabalenka and Rybakina have one grand slam to their name but are on the right path of consistency and are strong contenders for the US Open, if they maintain this level. The two have work to do on the clay court if they are to beat Iga Swiatek. Meanwhile, Swiatek will no doubt want to successfully defend both titles and will do everything in her power to deny them their first wins in either.
Mentality & Fitness
Despite the undeniable skill, hitting winning forehands and backhands may not come so freely with the added pressure that comes with expectancy. Swiatek has been outspoken about how the success in 2022 is challenging her mentality this year, as the expectancy of winning follows her around. It is likely that Rybakina and Sabalenka are already feeling this change around them, and it will be interesting to see how they handle the pressure as defending champions in the months to come.
Staying fit and healthy is no doubt an important point to consider in the longevity of a career at the top. So far they have not been too hampered by injuries, and one hopes that they can avoid lengthy spells out of the game. Trainers and proper scheduling will no doubt be integral to this, but it seems that so far the correct rhythm has been found.
What does this mean for the WTA circuit?
Swiatek, Sabalenka, and Rybakina have shown a desire not just to win titles but to consistently improve and be dominant. This is evident in the way they carry themselves on and off the court, notably in answers to the media, their preparation, and their demeanor in matches. It is converting them into household names and creating a recurring excitement for matches that has not been felt for a while.
Iga Swiatek remains the world’s number one with plenty of distance, but perhaps Sabalenka and Rybakina have started to knock on the door. It is now a question of whether these three can keep up that consistency for years on end to establish themselves to heightened levels of legendary in the game. Only time will tell, but they’re off to a good start.
