by World number six Elena Rybakina will meet the world number fourty-seven Anhelina Kalinina later today, as the two attempt to land their first-ever trophy in Rome. The match will also be Kalinina’s maiden WTA 1000 final, while Rybakina will attempt to land her first WTA 1000 on clay.
Overcoming the Semi-Final
The first semi-final was played between Ukrainian Anhelina Kalinina and Russian Veronika Kudermetova. In a match that featured long rallies, the two fought to gain control for long periods. Kudermetova got herself close to breaking Kalinina on eight occasions, but the Ukrainian powered through to open a 5-3 lead. However, she failed to close out the set at the first time of asking, extending it to seven. Despite the bump, she closed with a hold and a break to 7-5.
Though the Ukrainian looked set to book the place in the final in straight sets, Kudermetova tested Kalinina’s nerves and won sixteen points in a row to force a decider. However, the third set proved to be a different story as Kalinina broke twice to open a 4-0 lead by dishing out excellent first serves and backing it up with a whopping 77.8% second return point win percentage. Though Kudermetova got on the board, she could not force a break, ultimately relinquishing the set 6-2 and thus the spot in the final to the Ukrainian.
On the other side of the draw, Elena Rybakina ousted Jelena Ostapenko in straight sets 6-2, 6-4. An immediate break gave the world number six a solid start to the match. Ostapenko steadied herself to get on the board, but then fell to another break, giving Rybakina a solid 4-1 lead. The Khazakstani then just need to hold serve and though Ostapenko saved three set points, Rybakina closed out the set with an ace down the T.
The Latvian got the jump on the second set, holding in the opening game and following it up with the first break on Rybakina’s serve to open a 2-0 lead. The Wimbledon champion had a look at breaking Ostapenko at 3-1, but the Latvian held on. However, as has been the case for the majority of the tournament, rainfall forced a break at 4-2 in the match and it was Rybakina who best handled the restart. The Khazakstani opened a 40-0 lead on Ostapenko’s serve as play resumed and broke the Latvian twice, carving out a 5-4 lead. Though Ostapenko saved one match point, she yielded the second, sealing the victory for Rybakina in straight sets, 6-2, 6-4.
The Final: Rybakina vs Kalinina
The Stakes
The match will be the first final in Rome for both, however, the difference lies in the fact that it will also be Kalinina’s first-ever WTA 1000 final. The Ukrainian has secured herself a new career-high ranking by reaching the final and will be in the Top 15 come Monday. However, there is no doubt that she will also want to notch the victory in her belt, which would also lift her to world number thirteen.
On the other hand, this will be the third WTA 1000 final in 2023 for Elena Rybakina who will be keen to back up her victory at Indian Wells earlier in the year. The hard hitter will face some demons as she attempts to land her first clay WTA 1000 against a player who is very comfortable at grinding out rallies on the surface. However, the fact that winning the tournament would catapult Rybakina to Top 4 in the world rankings certainly does no harm to her motivation.
Technical Assessments
The two have met just once before, in Charleston in 2022, where Kalinina emerged victorious. Despite also being played on clay, the tournament is played on green and not red clay making the conditions of the match very different from Rome. Red clay is considered slower and there is no doubt that Kalinina’s crafty game is the more suited to it from the two. A high first-serve percentage will be important for Elena Rybakina as Anhelina Kalinina has been lethal at picking off opponents on second-serve returns. On the other hand, Rybakina has added more variation to her game and is looking more comfortable on the surface and at the net. However, it is unlikely that she will want to be reeled in to long rallies, contrary to her opponent. She is also having a fantastic season on tour, which makes her the favourite based on form this year, as well as ranking.
The time spent on court throughout the tournament may also play a factor as both have had vastly different game times. Kalinina has progressed in the tournament with a much longer time on court, having played the last three matches to three sets. On the other hand, Rybakina will be much fresher having gone through multiple rounds via opponent injury, but also due to her tendency to rack up quick points most notably with her serve. Should the game go the distance, it will be interesting to see whether fatigue will catch up with the Ukrainian, or if the world number six will have the patience to grind out the victory.
An Emotional Final
Speaking to the press, Ukranian Anhelina Kalinina dedicated her semi-final victory to her country, “I really hope that I give a tiny, small light, maybe some positive emotions for my country. I really hope that Ukraine a little bit enjoys this.”
Tensions between Ukranian, and Russian and Belarussian players are no secret in the tennis world. Although born in Moscow, Elena Rybakina made the switch to play for the Khazakstan Federation early in her career, due to the financing and support provided by the federation. Speaking to the press she suggested that there is a good relationship between her and Kalinina, despite her original roots. On Kalinina, “She’s a really good person. Actually, she used to work with my coach. We just have a good relationship. I’m always cheering for her also. Same, whenever I win, she’s always supporting me. We have a good relationship. Yeah, I’m happy that we’re going to play the final.”
The two will meet tonight at the Centrale in Rome.
